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Honesty & gas prices

In the past few weeks since gas has passed $3.40 per gallon, misunderstandings of what drives gasoline prices have once again become prominent. This has included a resurgence of the old supply-side myth with an emphasis on the source of the oil. Since this is a presidential election year, the opposing candidates have used and perpetuated these misunderstandings and myths as planks in their campaigns. Today, I’ll leave out the more detailed analysis that some will consider to be mere opinion, and will only look at indisputable facts.

Here are the monthly average retail gasoline prices in the USA since 1976:

Take a few seconds to examine the overall price trend and the points where there are major changes in the price of gasoline.

Now that the price changes are fresh in your memory, consider some basic facts:

Now, consider the dates of several historic events, including:

This is enough to have a reasonable understanding of the price of oil, without a more detailed look. With this understanding of the context of gas prices, consider:

  • Given the information above, how much control does the President of the United States have over the price of gasoline?
  • If you had to choose one price or trend to represent the cost of gasoline under President Bush or Obama, what would be the most honest price or trend in prices?
  • What points do the Republican presidential candidates reference as the price of gas under Presidents Bush and Obama?
  • What (if any) price trend do the Republican presidential candidates mention as the trend under Presidents Bush and Obama?

It should now be clear that the major GOP presidential candidates are either misinformed about the price of oil, or are intentionally deceptive. Which is more probable? Is one of these alternatives acceptable?

Swimming in March

The March heatwave that the midwest has been suffering has been so long and hot that the water is already warm. I went on a 15 mile run at Fox Island, and 12 miles in decided to see how warm Bowman Lake was. I’d heard that the surface of the water was warm, so I waded in. I was expecting cold but tolerable water, but it was actually reasonably warm. I ended up walking out into water up to my chin and swimming a bit before finishing my run.

It’s usually another six weeks before the lake is as warm as it is now. With the lack of winter this year, and the extended heat wave, this shouldn’t be too surprising, but it still is. This heat wave is even so hot that some places have experienced lows above their record highs.

The unseasonably warm and dry weather did create excellent conditions for a 40 acre prescribed burn at Fox Island. This year we were able to do the best burn of the oak tree field—a prairie area with lots of invasive honeysuckle—that I have ever seen. And with rain just a couple hours after the burn finished, we didn’t have to worry about any embers lighting the unburned area.

The obligatory dandelion

Since I’m experimenting with wide spectrum photography, here are the obligatory pictures of dandelions. I don’t have a UV flash system setup yet, so I have been taking all my UV pictures in full sunlight. I usually take all my flower pictures around sunrise, but have been waiting until later in the day so that I have more UV ‘light’ available.

The dandelion in the visible spectrum:

The dandelion in UV-A as the camera records it:

The dandelion in shifted colors; green, blue, and ultraviolet displayed as red, green, and blue:

The wide spectrum dandelion; red, green, blue, and ultraviolet compressed into the visible spectrum:

An alternate wide spectrum; red, green, and blue are compressed into R & G, and UV-A is placed in B.

It’s a start, but I still have some technique to work out. The lens I am currently using has a large focus shift between visible, ultraviolet, and infrared; and I still haven’t perfected my technique of compensating for the focus shift. The pattern on the dandelion is clearly visible in the UV-A image, but not as clear as I would like, but is actually much clearer than the other two dandelions I took pictures of at different times of day. For much more dramatic examples of dandelions in ultraviolet, see Bjørn Rørslett’s classic example, and Oleksandr Holovachov’s example.

Visualizing a wider spectrum

Since I’ve been playing with the beyond visible photography, I’ve also been looking at ways to visualize more “colors” than we can see. In yesterday’s post, I simply split the pictures into separate grayscale images: near infrared (IR-A), red, green, blue, and near ultraviolet (black light, UV-A). For this to be more than a fun art experiment, I need to come up with a consistent and automated way to generate useful images. The standard color photograph and the grayscale UV-A image will be part of my output, but I’d like to experiment with other options. Back when I was first playing with infrared photography in 2002 and 2003, I tried replacing one of the color channels with IR-A, but my favorite method was using the IR-A image to alter the lightness of the color image. Since I was working in commercial photo editors, the process wasn’t particularly convenient. This time I’m speeding up the process—and keeping results consistent—by writing my own program to process my wide spectrum images. Here are my early results.

My first experiment was to compress the full IR-visible-UV range into one picture, with each of the five channels equally weighted:

Since I plan on using wide spectrum photography for plants, the IR-A channel isn’t particularly useful. This is because flowers and leaves are often nearly uniformly reflective in the IR-A range. So I compressed the visual range + UV-A into one image:

Since many insects have a visual spectrum shifted to shorter wavelengths than we do, I also created a shifted version. A quick way to do this is by replacing red with green, green with blue, and blue with ultraviolet:

Since the color replacements are arbitrary, I made a version that keeps the leaves green by making a version with the green and blue in place and the red replaced with ultraviolet:

In the process of inspecting these images and other variations, I noticed that my ultraviolet images probably have less infrared contamination than I initially thought. That’s good. Now, to try my ultraviolet setup on more subjects…

UV Photography: Early Images

I’ve been gathering equipment for a project involving ultraviolet photography for quite a while. I finally have enough equipment to shoot some test photos. I used several blooming crocus in full sunlight to test my beyond visible photography setup:

Infrared (IR-A)

Red

Green

Blue

Ultravoilet (UV-A)

The ultraviolet (UV-A) image likely has a large amount of infrared (IR-A) contamination, but I should be able to improve that once one more backordered part arrives.

First Flowers and the 48 Hour Winter

This year was the shortest winter in memory, lasting from Friday evening to Sunday afternoon on the weekend of January 20—22. Fortunately, I had put enough time on the NordicTrac to make the most of the snow when it finally came. But now the long season of not-winter-not-spring is over, and it is spring.

I’ve been watching the spots that usually have the first wildflowers for several weeks, looking for the first signs of spring. On Wednesday, the first harbinger of spring (Erigenia bulbosa) showed up at the usual first bloom spot. By Thursday, many more harbinger of spring were blooming:

The skunk cabbage (Symplocarpus foetidus) was also blooming:

I expected to see the skunk cabbage up much earlier, but Wednesday was the first time I found open blooms at Fox Island this year. I was told they have been blooming for three weeks at Metea.

In addition to the wildflowers, I saw a large leopard frog and heard a number of spring peepers on Thursday. It’s definitely spring.

The Compleat Meadmaker by Ken Schramm

The Compleat Meadmaker by Ken Schramm is an excellent book on making mead. Of the dozen books I have read on producing cider, wine, beer, and mead, this is one of the two best. The basic ‘Changing Honey into Wine’ chapter is a short and clear explanation you can use to produce your first batch of mead, and the rest of the book is detailed and accurate enough that The Compleat Meadmaker is worth keeping around as a reference. Schramm includes lots of useful information about honey and other ingredients, as well as a good history of mead. Unlike some books that are little more than, ‘do this, it works,’ Schramm explains everything well enough that you will have a good idea why it is done, and can decide if you want to skip a step. One contrast with other zymurgy books is that Schramm does a good job of providing clear and accurate definitions of terms, and places the definitions where they are needed.

The Compleat Meadmaker is well written, and is both a good introduction and a good resource to keep around. I used this book as a reference for making my first batches of mead and cyser, and I intend to refer to it in the future.


BibTeX reference:

@book{schramm2003compleat,
    Author = {Ken Schramm},
    Publisher = {Brewers Publications},
    Title = {The Compleat Meadmaker: Home production of honey wine from
            your first batch to award-winning fruit and herb variations},
    Year = {2003}
}

Occupy Abortion

There is an interesting discord between two protest groups that have been in the news in the past few months.

Many of the most vocal supporters of the annual March for Life—now in its 38th year—are among the most vocal opponents of the Occupy movement. They claim the Occupiers are just ‘whiny protesters’ taking the ‘lazy’ way to stand against ‘perceived injustices’. They complain that the Occupy movement gets disproportionate press coverage, and that the March for Life doesn’t get the coverage it deserves. Similarly, the Occupy folks complain about poor media coverage. Both groups perceptions of media coverage are partially an example of the hostile media effect, but the animosity raises a clear problem:

The philosophies that give rise to the problems that the Occupy movement is protesting are the same philosophies behind the existence of legal abortion in the United States.

The problems combated by both groups are rooted in philosophies that celebrate avarice to the extent that the complete devaluation of others is encouraged.1 Whether the majority of those in either protest group recognize this underlying commonality is another story; it appears that many don’t, but a little mutual philosophical examination could improve the progress of both groups.

Why the antagonism instead of cooperation? The main anti-abortion2 advocates concentrate exclusively on one narrow effect of the root problem: abortion. This single-minded effort has worsened other consequences of the celebration of avarice. This is because the concentration has historically led to strange political alliances: instead of working with groups that fight other problems with the same root, they typically endorse the most vocal champions of avarice, with a claimed disapproval of abortion as the only condition for endorsement. Since this philosophical compromise has continued for decades, it appears that the most vocal anti-abortion advocates are actually unaware that many of the positions held by supposedly anti-abortion politicians are actually at odds with philosophies that necessitates the pro-life stance. This dissonance is likely partially responsible for the rise of those in the anti-abortion movement who are no longer concerned with social issues. It is also a consequence of a philosophical background that often appears to only be acquired in order to have rational arguments to back their initial, and correct, emotional revulsion at abortion. This disconnect has unfortunately led to the complete dismissal of the significance—and even the existence—of the injustices the Occupy movement protests, and to the ridicule of potential allies.

The Occupy movement is protesting a wide range of problems with the same root, but their goal is explicitly to raise awareness, not to propose specific solutions. This has the benefit of creating a wide base, but this also means that many are likely to miss the other implications of their implicit recognition of the problem of avarice. Many may only recognize the effects without connecting them to their root cause. This is one reason the movement is partially only in protest against obvious problems such increasing income inequality partially due to regressive taxes, unfair representation due to unlimited corporate spending in elections and the doctrine of corporate personhood, and so on. A more examined and coherent philosophy would add to this an effort to educate the public on the root causes of the problems, which are also the root causes of legal abortion. To be fair, while many in the movement appear to be just reacting against the bad economy caused by the celebration of unrestrained avarice, a significant portion of the Occupy supporters have certainly done more philosophical introspection than those who are causing the problems.

The Occupy movement has successfully raised public awareness of problems that even in the first years Great Recession didn’t receive enough attention. The March for Life plays a role in bringing attention to the problem of legal abortion, though it seems to be mostly a motivational exercise for those involved to do something at other times of the year. Neither movement is perfect, but that doesn’t mean that they aren’t both beneficial. The common philosophical necessity should make the groups allies. Unfortunately, the most popular interactions I have seen are antagonistic. Real change to solve the problems caused by the celebration of avarice—protested by both the March for Life and Occupy—can’t come without correcting the mistaken philosophy that necessitates both groups, but some progress can be made.


  1. If this needs an explanation, it’ll have to wait until a follow up post.

  2. I say anti-abortion because not all who are against abortion are pro-life. This also creates consistent terminology with pro-abortion, which is a more accurate label than the self-chosen ‘pro-choice’. ‘Pro-choice’ is a particularly bad moniker because the supporters of abortion-on-demand are actually in favor of a legal privilege for a woman or girl to change her mind after she has already made the choice to accept the possibility of pregnancy.

Making Craft Cider: A Ciderist’s Guide by Simon McKie

Making Craft Cider: A Ciderist’s Guide by Simon McKie is an excellent starting point when learning to make your own cider. This is a short and well-written book that does a good job of summarising the best of the other four books in this series of reviews. McKie covers all the important topics—including choosing apples, pressing, blending, additions, and measurements—in a very short book, but manages to include enough detail to make informed choices in your first efforts as a ciderist. McKie includes a good explanation (with examples) of how to calculate specific gravity when adjusting sugar content, an important but often neglected topic. I appreciate the clear and accurate description of fermentation over the attempt at literary descriptions found in some other books. A useful note that McKie clearly describes is that having the correct total acid content is important for taste, but total acid is not the same as the pH, which is important for avoiding microbial infection.

Making Craft Cider is one of the most professionally produced zymurgy books I have read. It is well written, well typeset, nearly typo free, and has a good glossary and index. I’m not a fan of glossy paper, but it fits well with McKie’s use of many well-chosen photographs. The typical caveat about slight differences in terminology across the pond applies, but McKie is accurate and easy to read.

Making Craft Cider: A Ciderist’s Guide is a good first book for an aspiring ciderist to read. If you want same background on the American history of cider and styles of cider, you’ll also want to read Ben Watson’s Cider, hard and sweet. If you continue with cider making, you’ll also read Andrew Lea’s Craft Cider Making for slightly more information, but McKie’s book is the place to start.


This is the fourth review in a series on cider making books.


BibTeX reference:

@book{mckie2011making,
    Author = {Simon McKie},
    Publisher = {Osprey Publishing},
    Series = {Shire Library},
    Title = {Making Craft Cider: A Ciderist's Guide},
    Year = {2011}
}

Rain flees the plow

Mesoamerican rainfall anomalies, AD 800--950; source NASA GISS

There is increasing evidence that not only are we currently altering the global climate, but that humans have influenced regional climates in the past. A good place to start looking at this idea is today’s post on the NASA Earth Observatory. The paper discussed contributes to the evidence that Mayan agriculture contributed to the collapse of Mayan society in the AD 800s. My interpretation of the current best understanding can be summarized as:

Agricultural land was expanded through deforestation. The increase in agricultural land at the expense of forested land slightly altered rainfall, slightly increasing the severity of naturally occurring droughts. This increased the likelihood of famine and disease, amplifying the other factors that lead to the collapse of the Classic Mayan culture.

This potential demonstration of historical human influence on climate supports the concept that we have left the Holocene and entered the Anthropocene. It is also one more demonstration that the concept of “Rain follows the plow,” which was influential in expanding settlement of the American West & Great Plains in the 1800s, was flawed.

There are still many non-scientists who state that any claims of human caused changes in climate are simply ‘hubris’, but the growing list of examples of relatively small populations altering regional climates in the past should convince them of the plausibility of seven billion people altering the global climate.